According to the quarterly economic review of the Belarusian Economic Research and Education Center, due to the uncertainty in the oil sector, there is a risk that recession in Belarus will occur throughout 2020.
The experts believe that this year the negative impact on the Belarusian economy due to “oil uncertainty” will increase.
“Therefore, in early 2020 the growth acceleration phase will almost certainly be replaced by at least its slowdown, and probably even recession. Moreover, for the same reasons the threat of recession becomes tangible in the projection for the whole year 2020. But this scenario is unlikely to be acceptable to the authorities. Therefore, it can be expected that the issues of fiscal and monetary incentives will be on the agenda again,” the review says.
BEROC notes that Russian oil continues to rise in price for Belarus, which worsens the prospects for the economy as a whole. As a result, no later than 2022, our country will have to either reduce the volume of oil refining or offer other systemic answers to the rise in price of crude oil, the experts say. But it is difficult to give such answers due to the extremely important role of the oil refining sector for the Belarusian economy.
The review stresses that oil refining affects at least 8.5% of the Belarusian GDP. And the oil refining sector itself plays an important role in ensuring external, fiscal and financial stability throughout the economy.