The Eurasian States in Transition Research Center (EAST Center) has prepared a report on the potential impact of the outbreak of the novel coronavirus on Belarus.
The authors of the report ‘Coronavirus Epidemic: Scenarios of Consequences for Belarus’ are referring to scientific researches and articles by reputed journals and think tanks.
The EAST Center draws attention to the calculations showing that 86% of all coronavirus cases in China have not been documented as well as to the mathematical model of the epidemic in Belarus in the recent study by Imperial College London. The researchers warn that up to 68,000 persons may die of COVID-19 in the country if the Belarusian authorities fail to take proper steps to combat the infection. Accorsing to them, such worst-case scenario also implies nearly 350,000 hospitalisations.
If soft package is introduced in the country, the death toll may be volatile between 15,000 to 32,000.
If Belarus imposes severe quarantine measures when the death rate is 18 per week, it would contribute to decreasing the number of coronavirus deaths even to 1,860, EAST Centre quotes the British experts.
The ‘unmitigated’ strategy includes: the population’s social distancing; self-isolation of people having COVID-19 symptoms; voluntary two-week home quarantine of all persons who contected with the infected; shutting down educational institutions.
As of today, the number of the infected with COVID-19 has totalled to 700 in Belarus; 13 persons have died.
As reported earlier, the Belarusian Council of Ministers is taking measures to prevent and spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus in Belarus. In particular, the government bound the arrivals from abroad to self-isolate for 14 days. At the same time, the Health Ministry is still refraining from recommendations to impose quarantine measures on educational institutions due to ‘inexpedience’. However, the spring school holidays have been extended for a week in the country.
On April 3, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka said that the introduction of tough quarantine measures and placing a curfew would not improve the coronavirus situation in Belarus. Previously, the Belarusian leader promised that despite the coronavirus, no festivities on the 75th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War would be canceled. With hundreds of fans in the stands, sports competitions were held.
